A hornet's nest

For the last few years, the Western public fixated its attention in the conflicts in the Middle East, with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Arab Spring revolution , Libya, Egypt, Israel and now Syria.   The human suffering in this region is truly inconceivable. Unfortunately, the practical reason we truly care about anything that happens in this area is oil.  It reminds me of the line from the science fiction novel "Dune".  "The spice must flow." 

Politicians in the US started promising energy independence during the first oil shock in 1973.  Political talk is cheap, if anything, over the following decades, the US became more dependent on Middle Eastern oil.  Of late, the US oil industry has made incredible strides in drilling technology.  We are now sitting pretty on extremely large natural gas and oil deposits.  This is excellent timing, as the world seems to be turning into a more dangerous place.

Over the last few months, tensions between the two Koreas have risen.  The idiot king Kim has made a series of nuclear threats that have alarmed South Korea into considering a preventive strike on the North.  This could be a flashpoint for a larger conflict that would pit South Korea, Japan and the US against North Korea and China. 

Separately, the relationship between China and Japan is at a very low point.  A territorial dispute about some uninhabited islands south of Japan has created all kinds of negatives ripples between the two countries.  The islands have economic importance, since the area has oil and gas resources.  Nevertheless the conflict is being sold to the local populations as a sovereign dispute; one of principle, in an attempt to rekindle ill wills from WWII. This situation has the certain troubling aroma of preparing a population for war.

Last week, a Chinese warship locked its radar on a Japanese destroyer.  This is the naval equivalent of my neighbor pointing a gun to my forehead.  The Japanese naval commander did not open fire and the incident deescalated.

This gives you a sense of the realities of today's situation in Asia.  It is truly a hornet’s nest. An isolated, testosterone-rich naval commander with a guts-and-glory mindset could start a conflict of massive proportions in this area.  This would automatically involve the US, bound by treaties to assist Japan and South Korea. The US has silently deployed a large contingent of naval resources to the area, to conduct “training exercises”.  This was happening as we were happily buzzed watching the Super Bowl.  But I digress…  

This situation marks a new chapter for our relationship with China, and it is a much more dangerous one than what we have seen in the past.  This new reality should be part of a serious political discussion that would make the US population aware of what is going on in the region, what is our strategy both military and industrial for this region.  We are just as dependent on Asian gadgets as we were on Middle East oil back in 1973.

 

When Obama and Romney brought up this issue in the presidential debates, it was politely obfuscated as “the increased importance of Asia”.  The discussion became surreal and almost cartoonish, Obama reminding Romney that the army no longer uses as many bayonets.  I would have fired them both on the spot if this was a corporate discussion on the issue.       

My dear political leaders, now that the election is over, where do we go from here?