The US provides roughly $1.5 billion a year in military and economic aid to Egypt. This is one of the largest aid packages to any nation and pretty much funds the entire Egyptian military, second only to Israel in terms of firepower in the area. It is hard to put a price tag to the value of a well armed, stable, Suez canal loving Egypt. Somebody in the US State Department thought that $1.5 billion sounded like a good round number and the rest is history.
There are conditions to this aid, of course. The US does not support countries, but governments. Specially so democratically elected governments. If the US State Department defines Morsi's ousting by the military as a coup d'etat, then the aid package would stop. This would force the Egyptian military to fund itself the old fashion way. That would be a shock to the population, no doubt.
In a carefully worded statement, president Obama steered clear from defining the situation in Egypt in any concrete way. He did mention the potential aid issue. Letting definitions stay fluid maybe the right thing to do now, since there is no real urgency to commit to an action until the dust settles and we all understand the situation a little bit better. The sheer size of the package makes it for strong leverage and a great incentive for good behavior for whoever ends up in power.
One of the reasons I believe you have to be a little bit insane to want to become president of the United States is that you get to referee the deeply emotional family feud that continually goes on in the Middle east. But I digress....
I can imagine Mr. Obama on the phone with the head of the new military junta. The music from "Do you wanna be a millionaire" playing in the background. Mr. General, for $1.5 billion dollars, please answer this question, did your actions constitute a coup or where you just defending the rights of the people of Egypt?
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